Democrats’ generic midterm voting lead shrinking: poll


A new poll found Democrats’ lead over Republicans in a general congressional vote has tripled since August, another sign of the GOP’s momentum advantage, less than a week before Election Day.

The Yahoo News/YouGov poll has charted the Democratic Party’s downward spiral since August, when the Democrats led the general congressional vote by 6 points. In late September, the same poll saw the Democrats’ lead slip to 4 points. And now, in the last Yahoo News/YouGov poll ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm elections, the Democrats’ lead has shrunk to 2 points.

The poll released Thursday found that of 1,641 registered voters, 46% say they will vote Democrat and 44% say they will vote Republican. It’s effectively a tie, as the poll’s margin of error is 2.7 percentage points.

Of those who have already voted or say they will “definitely vote” on Election Day, 49% said they would vote for a Democrat and 47% said they would vote for a Republican.

The poll also found that voter enthusiasm favors Republicans, although more early voters said they voted for Democrats.

Vice President Kamala Harris, Governor Kathy Hochul and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rallied prospective voters at Barnard College yesterday.
Debra L Rothenberg/Shutterstock

Among registered Democratic voters, 74% have either already voted or say they will “definitely” vote. The number is 7 points higher for registered Republicans, with 81% saying they have already voted or will definitely vote.

Other recent polls have also shown that Republicans are overtaking and overtaking Democrats in the general congressional vote.

Voters fill out absentee ballots at the office of the Elections Committee in the Allegheny County Office Building on November 3, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
The last Yahoo News/YouGov poll was conducted October 27-31.
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A Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday showed Republicans leading by 2 points, and a Suffolk University-USA Today poll last week showed the GOP was up 4 points.

The Yahoo News/YouGov poll also measured which issue voters care about most, and like numerous other polls, inflation was named the top issue by 38% of voters.

Also a spelling problem for Democrats, a full 63% of voters said inflation was “getting worse,” and just 17% said it was “getting better.” Republicans also beat Democrats by a wide margin, 43% to 34%, on which party would do a “better job” on inflation.

The survey was conducted from October 27th to 31st.

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